Hamilton, Burlington & Niagara Real Estate Market: 2025 Recap and 2026 Outlook

The real estate market across Hamilton, Burlington, Haldimand County, and Niagara North experienced a significant slowdown in 2025. Reduced buyer demand, higher interest rates, and broader economic uncertainty all contributed to one of the slowest years the region has seen in over a decade.

Understanding what happened — and what may come next — is essential for both buyers and sellers heading into 2026.

Home Sales Declined Sharply in 2025

Home sales weakened considerably across the region in 2025:

• Total sales fell 12% year-over-year, with 8,996 homes sold

• 2025 marked the slowest year for sales since 2010

• Sales activity was more than 30% below long-term averages

• A slower December contributed to the overall annual decline

This wasn’t a short-term pause — it reflected a prolonged period of hesitation among buyers.

Market Conditions Shifted in Buyers’ Favour

While fewer new listings were added later in the year, market conditions still tilted toward buyers due to slower sales activity.

As a result:

• Homes stayed on the market longer

• Inventory accumulated despite fewer new listings

• Buyers gained more choice and stronger negotiating power

For prepared buyers, 2025 quietly offered opportunities that weren’t available during more competitive years.

Economic Factors That Impacted the Market

Several broader factors played a role in dampening demand:

• Global economic uncertainty affected consumer confidence

• Higher interest rates reduced affordability

• Job security concerns caused many buyers to delay decisions

Together, these factors kept a significant portion of potential buyers on the sidelines throughout the year.

Home Prices Declined Across All Property Types

Price corrections were seen across every market and housing type in 2025:

• Average home prices fell 5% year-over-year

• Row homes and apartment-style units experienced the largest declines

• Benchmark prices decreased in every area

Regional breakdown:

• Burlington recorded the largest decline at over 6%

• Haldimand County saw the smallest drop at under 4%

This price adjustment reflected changing buyer demand rather than distress selling, indicating a market reset rather than a collapse.

2026 Outlook: Cautious Optimism Ahead

Looking ahead, there are early signs that conditions may improve in 2026.

Interest Rates

Interest rates are expected to be lower than they were at the start of 2025, which could gradually bring buyers back into the market.

New Government Incentives

Recently announced provincial and federal incentives may also help stimulate activity, including:

• HST removal on new homes priced up to $1 million for first-time buyers

Industry leaders are now urging governments to extend this HST exemption to all buyers, which could have a stronger impact on both housing supply and economic growth.

What This Means for Buyers and Sellers

For Buyers

• Less competition

• Improved negotiating leverage

• Opportunities to buy below peak pricing levels

For Sellers

• Pricing strategy is more important than ever

• Homes must be positioned correctly from day one

• Understanding local market conditions is critical

This is no longer a one-size-fits-all market. Each city and neighbourhood is behaving differently.

Final Thoughts

The 2025 slowdown across Hamilton, Burlington, Haldimand County, and Niagara North was driven by economic conditions rather than a lack of long-term demand. As rates ease and incentives take effect, 2026 may bring renewed activity — but likely in a more balanced, strategic environment.

If you’re considering buying or selling, understanding local data and timing will make all the difference.

📍 For clear, no-pressure guidance tailored to your situation:

👉 Stephen Paige – Stephen Paige Real Estate
🌐 www.stephenpaige.com